Norfolk City Council: Stop Pretending. The safety issue could have been fixed with a couple of flashing lights and a sign for under $1,000.

The city is buying this property to satisfy the claim of the owner that he lost value. Although, I am not sure that he has a claim. If he does, would that mean I could sue a neighbor for monetary damages because their house looks trashy? Regardless, if you want to buy it to satisfy his claim, then fine. Tell the truth though. If the city had said they wanted to buy it for a park, that would be fine. Don’t justify it because you think it would be safer.

Finally, our new councilman Mr. Protogyrou needs a lesson in regional administration. The Pilot stated:

“Let HRT pay for this,” Councilman Andy Protogyrou said. “This is their fault. It’s their mistake. I don’t see why Norfolk taxpayers have to pay for this.”

While I disagree that this is anybody’s fault and think that the city just wanted to pay back a property owner, I have to explain why it doesn’t matter who’s pocket this comes from. Since we have no tax stream dedicated to transit, HRT must get its money from four main sources: 1)Farebox revenue, 2)City Government, 3)State Government, and 4)Federal Government. Additionally, the current light rail project is structured to lay all extra costs on the city, so that Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, etc. are not paying money toward our project. That means, Mr. Protogyrou, that if the city made HRT pay for this, they would add their markup for management and then bill the city.

• $257,700,000 – Debt Service
• +$405,100,000 – Support to other agencies and administration
• +$306,700,000 – ‘Special financing’ and earmarks
• =$969,500,000 - Does NOT include Road Construction OR Maintenance.

• $656,800,000 – Construction
• +$1,698,000,000 – Maintenance
• =$2,354,800,000 - Maintenance and Construction

So your $900 million in gas tax pays for administrative costs. That means that VDOT needs a 70% subsidy over what gas tax covers. Sure that sounds a little bit better than the 80% subsidy that HRT pulls in, but think about this: HRT’s 80% subsidy equals roughly $60 million while VDOT’s 70% subsidy equals $3.3 billion. Also, VDOT is not the only maintainer of roadways. Each city in Hampton Roads pays for some of their roads and the feds kick in the rest. I would venture to guess that the subsidies’ true cost are nearly equal. Let’s move on. Once you get past the negative aspects of the Pilot’s article, you get to this:

Two scenarios could change the cost/benefit ratio: if gas prices rise enough to move commuters from their cars to light rail; and if the rail is expanded to reach more people.

So here is this economist, the same one who just said that the cost was not justifiable, saying that if the system were expanded or if more people used it, the cost would be easier to swallow.  OK. As an economist, I am sure that he would agree that the first part should include all commuter costs, not just fuel cost. Right? If the total cost of operating a motor vehicle increases, then people will start to move from cars to transit. As part of the State of the Region article, the Pilot wrote:

Long standing transportation problems also make the region less attractive to businesses and the military, Koch said. [...] Road improvements, he said, will demand higher gas tax and steep tolls.

As part of his predictions of the future, he acknowledges that the cost of commuting will be higher in the future if we want to fix our transportations shortcomings. Since our transportation problems are a direct result of our region’s lack of planning and cooperation, I would also assume that he would agree that we need to start today if we want to have any chance of improving our outlook. That would be where light rail comes in. We have to built a regional mass transit system because, in the long run, it will be more effective than building roads. If you had asked me 20 years ago (or asked someone else, since I was 3 year old twenty years ago) I would have agreed that roadways were more effective. Gas was cheap. Road construction was (relatively) cheap. Now, however, we can see that there is an end to that. There will be no more cheap gas. It is on an uphill trend. The second game-changing scenario was that the cost would be more acceptable if it were expanded to reach more people. Is that not in the works? We could never afford to build a multi-billion-dollar system all at once. It has to be built in stages. In the end, despite the Pilot’s attempt at more anti-light rail news, I think that, when read into, it is actually quite positive. The Pilot itself wrote that this economist said that if there were more people and higher commuter costs, than light rail would be more cost efficient. Since we should all be able to agree that those two scenarios are approaching, then we should also agree that, while expensive at first, light rial will be more cost-effective than roads as we enter the future.

Tide LRT Vehicles Being Delivered

HRT has released their final “cost-to-completion” for the Tide light rail system currently under construction in Norfolk. The new final cost is $338,284,251. This is, of course, much higher than the $232 million that was originally promised. Despite claims that HRT’s new President and CEO Philip Shucet is responsible for the firming up of the new number, the consultant was actually hired for the job by Townes, who knew about the cost overruns but failed to live up to City Council’s standards. It actually would make sense to me that the numbers Townes was feeding council were the preliminary numbers from his consultant. The difference between Townes’s and Shucet’s communication is that Townes should have done what Shucet did: tell council to hold on for a couple weeks while the consultant finishes the estimate.

Regardless, I hope that the project can stick to these numbers until completion. Personally, if Shucet does a good job with costs, I think we should demote him to a position to simply control LRT construction. That way we can hire a President and CEO that actually knows how to operate a transit system.

I believe that no matter what, you should always give credit where credit is due. The cities of Hampton Roads should change their board representation if they have failed to properly oversee HRT. They want to fire Mr. Townes because he failed to give timely notification of cost overruns. Now, fire the board for failing to take responsibility for their share of the problems. The board is not just there for sh*ts and giggles. They have a purpose. They have a duty to the residents of their respective cities to make sure that money is spent wisely.

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Photo by Hyunsoo Leo Kim (c) The Virginian-Pilot

Mr. Carter,

I recently read your guest-column in the Virginian-Pilot’s “Sunday Forum.” While I commend your effort to hold an opinion on the matter of Light Rail in Virginia Beach, I think that your article relies heavily on misguided information. I refuse to simply tell anybody that they are wrong but rather believe that every person should have the right to hear a well-thought-out rebuttal on their own arguments and in turn have the right to respond to such a rebuttal. That said, I would like to address each of your points individually.

1. As with every anti-light rail article, you start out mentioning cost-overruns. Not all of the additional $56 million dollars should be considered a cost-overrun. Approximately $10 million can be attributed to inflation, using the CPI from 2007 – 2008. There is also the costs of doing construction in Downtown Norfolk. Over 400 years, the city has accumulated vast networks of abandoned infrastructure. To give you an example, in a recent project crews pulled a wooden water pipe out of the ground. In addition to all the abandoned infrastructure, the city also has to work with the old trolley/railroad tracks that crisscross through Downtown, as well as nearly a dozen layers of roadway materials. The typical Downtown street has multiple layers of asphalt on top of concrete on top of trolley/railroad tracks on top of more concrete on top of cobblestone on top of trash. The majority of Downtown used to be river and has since been filled in with debris. Also, if the city wants to, say, upgrade aesthetics of certain LRT facilities, those costs are factored into the budget. On top of all of the city-mandated improvements, the state has added $6.9 million of additional costs regarding communications systems to enhance safety and security. The National Academy of Science once reported that the cost overruns on large transportation projects such as light rail frequently fit between 50% and 100%. Considering that range, I think our 24% cost increase is acceptable. The project’s $38 million per mile cost is far less than the projected $100 million per mile cost of the proposed Southeastern Parkway. Finally, the Norfolk project’s costs are higher in the Downtown area. Virginia Beach needs to focus on the lower costs of the project east of NSU.
2. You mention that “it ultimately boils down to what best benefits each locality.” This was a good philosophy back in 1963, when Virginia Beach and Chesapeake were formed to keep separated from the ‘inner city’ of Norfolk due to reasons which may or may not have been motivated by fear of the poor and of minorities, but that is for a different conversation. In today’s Hampton Roads, each ‘locality’ is but an organ in a larger bodily system. This ‘body’ of Hampton Roads needs all of its organs to survive. Cut out the heart and both die. Cut out the lungs and both die. Cut Virginia Beach off from the rest of the region and both suffer. Portsmouth, Chesapeake, and Newport News are all looking for ways to bring Light Rail to their cities. If Virginia Beach fails to connect to the region, both will suffer.
3. You mention how the light rail does not connect to Lynnhaven Mall or to the Virginia Marine Science Museum but it connects to all of the Downtown attractions. This is due largely to the fact the Virginia Beach is more concerned with keeping costs down that with connecting what should be connected. If they truly want it to work, Virginia Beach will use bus connections to connect key places to the light rail just as Norfolk is rerouting buses to make connection with other key places. The lack of LRT connections to Virginia Beach attractions is not some Norfolk conspiracy, but rather a product of Virginia Beach’s Planning.
4. I’m not sure what you were getting at in your violence paragraph. I seems that you are afraid tourists might flee the violence of the Oceanfront for the relative safety of anywhere else. I cannot imagine that this interpretation is wrong because you said the crime was an advantage to Norfolk. Perhaps direct this concern to the Virginia Beach Police and City Hall.
5. Next, you address traffic. You think that instead of making the LRT go to the Oceanfront, it should go to the Naval Station. It will go to the Naval Station. In fact, the Naval Station extension is the next on the list right behind the Oceanfront. You acknowledge that a Naval Station line would “make a reasonable difference.” Where would the riders come from? Virginia Beach. How do you expect the riders of the Naval Station line to get there if there is no line going through the Beach. The Oceanfront is not its only stop.

If Virginia Beach votes to abstain from Light Rail, everybody loses, especially Virginia Beach. In today’s times of increasing energy costs, consolidated living spaces and increased density is the way to go. Currently, Virginia Beach’s 400,000 residents take a toll on I-264. Just wait until they have 500,000 or 600,000. How will they get around? We have to consider this now. It has taken 20 years to get Norfolk’s LRT project started. We cannot wait until gridlock to think about alternatives.

For the sake of Hampton Roads’ future, my future, and the future of my children, I hope that Virginia Beach makes the forward-thinking decision to include light rail in their plans.

Thank You,
Russell Manning

http://www.757hamptonroads.com